Modeling covariance matrices via partial autocorrelations

AbstractWe study the role of partial autocorrelations in the reparameterization and parsimonious modeling of a covariance matrix. The work is motivated by and tries to mimic the phenomenal success of the partial autocorrelations function (PACF) in model formulation, removing the positive-definiteness constraint on the autocorrelation function of a stationary time series and in reparameterizing the stationarity-invertibility domain of ARMA models. It turns out that once an order is fixed among the variables of a general random vector, then the above properties continue to hold and follow from establishing a one-to-one correspondence between a correlation matrix and its associated matrix of partial autocorrelations. Connections between the latter and the parameters of the modified Cholesky decomposition of a covariance matrix are discussed. Graphical tools similar to partial correlograms for model formulation and various priors based on the partial autocorrelations are proposed. We develop frequentist/Bayesian procedures for modelling correlation matrices, illustrate them using a real dataset, and explore their properties via simulations

Risk factors for ischaemic colitis after surgery for abdominal aortic aneurysm: a systematic review and observational meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Ischaemic colitis is an infrequent but serious complication following repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), with high mortality rates. This systematic review set out to identify risk factors for the development of ischaemic colitis after AAA surgery. METHODS: A systematic search of the MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL databases was performed. This search was limited to studies published in the English language after 1990. Abstracts were screened by two authors. Eligible studies were obtained as full text for further examination. Data was extracted by two authors, and any disputes were resolved via consensus. Extracted data was pooled using Mantel-Haenszel random effects models. Bias was assessed using two Cochrane-approved tools. Effect sizes are expressed as relative risk ratios alongside the 95 % confidence interval. Statistical significance was defined at the level of p < 0.05. RESULTS: From 388 studies identified in the initial search, 33 articles were included in the final synthesis and analysis. Risk factors were grouped into patient (female gender, disease severity) and operative factors (peri-procedural hypotension, operative modality). The risk of ischaemic colitis was significantly higher when undergoing emergency repair versus elective (risk ratio (RR) 7.36, 3.08 to 17.58, p < 0.001). Endovascular repair reduced the likelihood of ischaemic colitis (RR 0.22, 0.12 to 0.39, p < 0.001). DISCUSSION: The quality of published evidence on this subject is poor with many retrospective datasets and inconsistent reporting across studies. Despite this, emergency presentation and open repair should prompt close monitoring for the development of IC

A BAYESIAN SHRINKAGE MODEL FOR INCOMPLETE LONGITUDINAL BINARY DATA WITH APPLICATION TO THE BREAST CANCER PREVENTION TRIAL

We consider inference in randomized studies, in which repeatedly measured outcomes may be informatively missing due to drop out. In this setting, it is well known that full data estimands are not identified unless unverified assumptions are imposed. We assume a non-future dependence model for the drop-out mechanism and posit an exponential tilt model that links non-identifiable and identifiable distributions. This model is indexed by non-identified parameters, which are assumed to have an informative prior distribution, elicited from subject-matter experts. Under this model, full data estimands are shown to be expressed as functionals of the distribution of the observed data. To avoid the curse of dimensionality, we model the distribution of the observed data using a Bayesian shrinkage model. In a simulation study, we compare our approach to a fully parametric and a fully saturated model for the distribution of the observed data. Our methodology is motivated and applied to data from the Breast Cancer Prevention Trial

Seasonal phosphorus and carbon dynamics in a temperate shelf sea (Celtic Sea)

The seasonal cycle of resource availability in shelf seas has a strong selective pressure on phytoplankton diversity and the biogeochemical cycling of key elements, such as carbon (C) and phosphorus (P). Shifts in carbon consumption relative to P availability, via changes in cellular stoichiometry for example, can lead to an apparent ‘excess’ of carbon production. We made measurements of inorganic P (Pi) uptake, in parallel to C-fixation, by plankton communities in the Celtic Sea (NW European Shelf) in spring (April 2015), summer (July 2015) and autumn (November 2014). Short-term (<8 h) Pi-uptake coupled with dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP) release, in parallel to net (24 h) primary production (NPP), were all measured across an irradiance gradient designed to typify vertically and seasonally varying light conditions. Rates of Pi-uptake were highest during spring and lowest in the low light conditions of autumn, although biomass-normalised Pi-uptake was highest in the summer. The release of DOP was highest in November and declined to low levels in July, indicative of efficient utilization and recycling of the low levels of Pi available. Examination of daily turnover times of the different particulate pools, including estimates of phytoplankton and bacterial carbon, indicated a differing seasonal influence of autotrophs and heterotrophs in P-dynamics, with summer conditions associated with a strong bacterial influence and the early spring period with fast growing phytoplankton. These seasonal changes in autotrophic and heterotrophic influence, coupled with changes in resource availability (Pi, light) resulted in seasonal changes in the stoichiometry of NPP to daily Pi-uptake (C:P ratio); from relatively C-rich uptake in November and late April, to P-rich uptake in early April and July. Overall, these results highlight the seasonally varying influence of both autotrophic and heterotrophic components of shelf sea ecosystems on the relative uptake of C and P

Orthorhombic versus monoclinic symmetry of the charge-ordered state of NaV2O5

High-resolution X-ray diffraction data show that the low-temperature superstructure of alpha-NaV2O5 has an F-centered orthorhombic 2a x 2b x 4c superlattice. A structure model is proposed, that is characterized by layers with zigzag charge order on all ladders and stacking disorder, such that the averaged structure has space group Fmm2. This model is in accordance with both X-ray scattering and NMR data. Variations in the stacking order and disorder offer an explanation for the recently observed devils staircase of the superlattice period along c.Comment: REVTEX, 4 pages including 2 figures, shortened, submitted to PR

Protocol for a multi-centre observational and mixed methods pilot study to identify factors predictive of poor functional recovery after major gastrointestinal surgery and strategies to enhance uptake of perioperative optimization. Optimizing the care and treatment pathways for older patients facing major gastrointestinal surgery (OCTAGON)

Introduction: National datasets report large variations in outcomes from older people (≥65 years) between different UK surgical units. This implies that not all patients receive the same level of care or access to resources, such as rehabilitation or allied health professional input. This might impact functional decline. Aims: Our aim is to evaluate the baseline status of older patients facing major gastrointestinal surgery and the impact of variation in perioperative assessment and provision of perioperative support on functional outcomes. Patients’ experiences and views of assessment and optimization will be explored via integrated qualitative semi-structured interviews. Methods and analysis: This multi-centre, pilot cohort study will include patients ≥65 years presenting via both elective and emergency pathways at three to five South Yorkshire NHS hospitals (Clinical Trials registration NCT04545125). The primary outcome is functional recovery measured using the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0 at 6 weeks post-operation. Secondary outcomes include feasibility, quality of life, length of stay and complication rate. An opportunistic sample size of 120 has been estimated and will inform the design of a future, adequately powered study. For the qualitative study, 20–30 semi-structured patient interviews will be undertaken with patients from the cohort study to explore experiences of assessment and optimization. Interviews will be digitally recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed according to the framework approach. Ethics and dissemination: This study has been approved by the National Health Service Research Ethics Committee and is registered centrally with Health Research Authority. It has been adopted by the National Institute for Health Research Portfolio scheme. Dissemination will be via international and national surgical and geriatric conferences

LB01: Cell Salvage during Caesarean Section: A Randomised Controlled Trial (The SALVO Trial)

Objective Excessive haemorrhage at caesarean section requires the use of donor (allogeneic) blood transfusion. The SALVO trial assessed whether the routine use of cell salvage during caesarean section can reduce the need for donor blood transfusion. Study Design We conducted a randomised controlled trial (26 UK obstetric units; June 2013 through April 2016) of routine cell salvage use (intervention) vs. current standard of care without routine salvage use (control) in caesarean section among women at risk of haemorrhage. We used multivariable models, adjusting for stratification variables and prognostic factors identified a priori, to compare rates of donor blood transfusion (primary outcome) and fetomaternal haemorrhage ≥2ml in RhD-negative women with RhD-positive baby (one of the secondary outcomes) between groups. Results Of 3028 women randomised, 2990 were analysed (after exclusions for vaginal delivery or hospital transfer after randomisation). Of 1498 assigned to intervention, 95.6% had cell salvage deployed (50.8% had salvaged blood returned; mean 259.9 ml) vs. 3.9% of 1492 assigned to control. Donor blood transfusion rates were lower in the intervention group than in control (2.5% vs. 3.5%, adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.65, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.42 to 1.01). No case of amniotic fluid embolism was observed. Fetomaternal haemorrhage was higher with intervention vs. control (25.6% vs. 10.5%, adjusted OR 5.63, 95% CI 1.43 to 22.14). Conclusion There was modest evidence for an effect of routine use of cell salvage during caesarean section on donor blood transfusion. The increased fetomaternal haemorrhage emphasises the need for adherence to guidance on anti-D prophylaxis and for research on risks of alloimmunisation to RhD and other red cell antigens following cell salvage. (Funder: UK National Institute of Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme, ISRCTN66118656)

Separation of K+ and Bi3+ displacements in a Pb-free, monoclinic piezoelectric at the morphotropic phase boundary

The best piezoelectric properties of any perovskite oxide known are found in the solid solution of the relaxor Pb(Mg1/3Nb2/3)O3 and ferroelectric PbTiO3. Despite its impressive properties, this system has limited analogy. We present the compositional exploration of the Pb-free analogue (1-x)(K1/2Bi1/2)(Mg1/3Nb2/3)O3-x(K1/2Bi1/2)TiO3 (KBMN-KBT). We locate the morphotropic phase boundary between x = 0.86 and 0.88 changing from Cm to Pm symmetry and the optimally performing composition at x = 0.88. We report a piezoelectric figure of merit (d33*) of 192 pm V−1 from strain measurements. Diffraction methods reveal disordered displacements of K+ and Bi3+ which persist from the KBMN endmember through multiple changes in symmetry. Rearrangement of the Bi3+ displacements along the uncommon [011]c direction drives the physical response. Ferroelectric, dielectric, and piezoresponse force microscopy are used to study the progression of physical properties through the MPB and attribute the mechanism to a polarization rotation. Taking account for local, short-range, and average structural features yield a balanced perspective on the structure and properties of this system, isolating the driving force within this system to the Bi3+ bonding configuration. This work yields a strong analogy to the Pb-based analogue, and provides strategies for further optimization

Site-Specific Fluorescence Polarization for Studying the Disaggregation of α-Synuclein Fibrils by Small Molecules

Fibrillar aggregates of the protein α-synuclein (αS) are one of the hallmarks of Parkinson’s disease. Here, we show that measuring the fluorescence polarization (FP) of labels at several sites on αS allows one to monitor changes in the local dynamics of the protein after binding to micelles or vesicles, and during fibril formation. Most significantly, these site-specific FP measurements provide insight into structural remodeling of αS fibrils by small molecules and have the potential for use in moderate-throughput screens to identify small molecules that could be used to treat Parkinson’s disease. © 2016 American Chemical Society